# Question 1Determine the error for each of the following forecasts. Compute MAD and MSE.Period Value

Question 1Determine the error for each of the following forecasts. Compute MAD and MSE.Period Value Forecast Error1 202 â€” â€”2 191 2023 173 1924 169 1815 171 1746 175 1727 182 1748 196 1799 204 18910 219 19811 227 211Question 2The U.S. Census Bureau publishes data on factory orders for all manufacturing, durable goods, and nondurable goods industries. Shown here are factory orders in the United States over a 13-year period (\$ billion).a. Use these data to develop forecasts for the years 6 through 13 using a 5-year moving average.b. Use these data to develop forecasts for the years 6 through 13 using a 5-year weightedmoving average. Weight the most recent year by 6, the previous year by 4, the year before that by 2, and the other years by 1.c. Compute the errors of the forecasts in parts (a) and (b) and then the MAD. Which forecast isbetter?Year Factory Orders (\$ billion)1 2,512.72 2,739.23 2,874.94 2,934.15 2,865.76 2,978.57 3,092.48 3,356.89 3,607.610 3,749.311 3,952.012 3,949.013 4,137.0Question 3The â€œEconomic Report to the President of the United Statesâ€ included data on the amounts ofmanufacturersâ€™ new and unfilled orders in millions of dollars. Shown here are the figures for new orders over a 21-year period. Use Excel to develop a regression model to fit the trend effects for these data. Use a linear model and then try a quadratic model. How well does either model fit the data?Year Total Number of New Orders1 55,0222 55,9213 64,1 824 76,0035 87,3276 85,1397 99,5138 115,1099 131,62910 147,60411 156,35912 168,02513 162,14014 175,45115 192,87916 195,70617 195,20418 209,38919 227,02520 240,75821 243,643