Eastern Kentucky University Threats and Attacks in US Paper

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this paper should be same the example I will uploaded here so for example you have to start your paper with we assess that and you continue the rest you writing

see the sample brief and you will understand everything

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Al Qaeda and ISIS THREAT ASSESSMENT BRIEF INSTRUCTIONS You will not create the graph below for your brief! This is used to demonstrate the logic of a threat matrix, which will guide the logic of your threat assessment. It is your job, as an analyst, to determine the nature of a specific potential national security threat to the US homeland or US interests abroad. Threats are assessed along two axes: the probability of a threat becoming a reality for the US or its interests overseas and the likely level of damage caused by such an attack or issue. The level of threat is a function of a combination of factors. The desire of the group to attack a target, the capability of the group to hit a target, and the factors that stand in the way of the group to successfully hit its target (known as mitigating factors). Counterterrorism analysts determine threats to the US and interests by looking at this combination of factors. This mix of factors can be expressed in the following formula: Threat (f)=desire of enemy to attack+ capabilities of enemy- mitigating factors Thus, to do a useful threat assessment, the analyst must determine how much the enemy desires to attack, what capabilities the enemy has to attack, and what factors stand in the way of the enemy to attack. The analyst wants to be able to answer two questions: What is the probability that the adversary will attack? And What damage would the adversary do to the US or its interests if did attack? The language used in assessing threats is important. An analysis should refer to the probability of an attack as either being highly unlikely, unlikely, even odds, likely, or high likely. The damage from a potential attack should be referred to as low, moderate, or great amount of damage. Let’s think of an example: Britain. The probability of Britain attacking the US or its interests is highly unlikely. The consequences of Britain attacking the US or its interests would be high. The country is highly capable and nuclear-armed. As an analyst, you need to make an overall assessment of the threat that Britain poses to the US. Your overall assessment would be that while it is a highly capable actor it poses no threat to the US or its overseas interests. Two things are important to determining why Britain would not attack the US. First, it has no desire to do so. Second, we have immense capabilities to punish the UK for such an attack (a mitigating factor). Let us consider another hypothetical example: radical animal rights activists in the US. They have attacked animal testing facilities in the past. They will very likely do so again in the future. So we would assess that the probability of such an attack is a likely or even highly likely. But, no one has ever been killed or seriously wounded in one of their attacks and they do minor damage to the facilities they attack. So the consequences of such an attack would be low. So, your overall assessment as a smart analyst is that radical animal rights activists pose a very minor threat to the US. 1 The key to making a good, defensible, threat assessment is evidence for your arguments. You cannot say, I think that such group is likely to attack the US because they look scary. Have they attacked the US before? Have they tried before? Have they expressed a desire to do so? Do they have the capability to do it? You need to be able to point to concrete evidence for every assertion you make! The same goes for the arguments you make about consequences of an attack. When they have attacked before, wherever that might be, how destructive were they? Do they have new, known capabilities? Do they have the ability to use those capabilities against us here or against our interests overseas? Once again, you need to provide concrete evidence. You need to cite the evidence that you use in your brief! This is a huge part of an intelligence analyst’s responsibility. Obviously, not all intelligence is of equal reliability and value. The highly-placed source in ISIL is a better intel source than some farmer who saw ISIL pass through his fields. By citing your sources, you convey what quality of information you are using. Use the source-citing method that is shown in the sample brief I have provided. Use Calibri 11 point font, single spaced. The brief should not be much longer than one page. If it is shorter than a page, you are probably not providing much substantive information. The format of your brief must follow the format of the sample brief I have provided. Pick one (two if you are a graduate student) of the following possible topics for your threat assessment. You are writing about the threat the group/movement poses to US allies abroad. Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISIS-KP) Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) ISIS-Sinai Province 2 3 SAMPLE BRIEF Core Al Qaeda Poses a Low Threat to the United States Key Judgments: • • We assess that is unlikely that Core Al Qaeda will be able to attack the United States in the foreseeable future. We assess that an Al Qaeda attack in the United States would likely be a low damage event. Core Al Qaeda Unlikely to Attack in the US AQC was once a formidable threat to the Continental United States (CONTUS). The coordinated attacks of 11 September 2001 killed close to 3,000 people and injured thousands more. Since that time, AQC has been eliminated as an organized presence in the United States due to operations by the FBI in concert with intelligence operations carried out by NSA and CIA to locate operatives through overseas intelligence collection and kinetic operations. The last discovered AQC cell-based plot was in 2009 and consisted of a plan to attack the New York City subway system.1 Since that time, no other AQC cells have been discovered in CONTUS. Also, there have been no AQC-directed or inspired single perpetrator attacks or plots in CONTUS since 2010. One very important factor in assessing AQC to present a very low probability of attack on CONTUS is that its Command and Control (C2), which was principally located in the tribal areas of Pakistan following its displacement from Afghanistan in 2001, has been decimated by a campaign of US drone strikes between 2008-2015 and Pakistani military operations. Several tier one and tier two operational commanders as well as scores of lower ranking cadre were killed during these operations.2 UBL himself noted the severity of the casualties in communications with his subordinates in documents found in Abbottabad. He counseled his operatives to not travel to the Af-Pak theater because of the high likelihood that they would be killed.3 After UBL’s death, operational leadership of AQ operations against the West was passed to Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). 4 Core Al Qaeda Attack in the United States Would Be a Low Damage Event While AQC is a shadow of its former self, it has clearly continued to envision a spectacular, mass casualty attack on CONTUS. Its C2 has tried at least three times to use aircraft to strike CONTUS in combined, simultaneous attacks.5 Their best hope of achieving such an attack would come from perhaps the U.K. but the Salafi-jihadi presence in the U.K. is now almost completely dominated by ISIL.6 Given the continuing presence of AQ directed and inspired Pakistanis who travel back and forth between the U.K. and Pakistan, there could be a remote possibility for commandeering aircraft. If such aircraft could be commandeered, and that possibility is remote, the threat to CONTUS would not be inconsequential. What is more likely, although a remote possibility, is that some AQC-inspired individual in the US will attack a soft target on his/her own volition. The casualties from such an attack are likely to be fairly low. We have not seen this type of attack from AQ-inspired individuals yet. As in the UK, the imagination of would-be jihadis in CONTUS is overwhelmingly captured by ISIL and not by AQC. 7 4 The overall assessment is that AQC presents minimal risk to CONTUS at this time. That could change as the security situation in Afghanistan deteriorates. Sources 1 Jones, Seth. Hunting in the Shadows: The Pursuit of Al Qai’da since 9/11. New York: Norton. (2012): 311-318. 2 Byman, Daniel. Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and the Global Jihadist Movement. Oxford: Oxford University Press. (2015):. 199-201. 3 Rassler, Don, Gabriel Koehler-Derrick, Liam Collins, Muhammad Al-Obaidi, and Nelly Lahoud. “Letters from Abbottabad: bin Laden sidelined.” Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (2012). 4 Binnie, Jeremy. “AQAP’s (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) Yemeni takeover.” Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency Monitor (2012): 10-13. 5 Silber, Mitchell D. The Al Qaeda factor: plots against the West. University of Pennsylvania Press, 2011. 6 Anthony, Andrew. “Anjem Choudary: The British extremist who backs the caliphate.” The Guardian 7 (2014). 7 Zelin, Aaron Y. “The war between Isis and Al-Qaeda for supremacy of the global jihadist movement.” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 20, no. 1 (2014): 1-11. 5 How to Cite Sources in Your Intelligence Product Source of this information: http://www.easybib.com/guides/citation-guides/chicagoturabian/footnotes/ Footnotes or endnotes acknowledge which parts of your assessment reference particular sources. Generally, you want to provide the author’s name, publication title, publication information, date of publication, and page number(s) if it is the first time the source is being used. Any additional usage, simply use the author’s last name, publication title, and date of publication. Footnotes should match with a superscript number at the end of the sentence referencing the source. You should begin with 1 and continue numerically throughout the paper. Do not start the order over on each page. In the text: Throughout the first half of the novel, Strether has grown increasingly open and at ease in Europe; this quotation demonstrates openness and ease.1 In the footnote: 1. Henry James, The Ambassadors (Rockville: Serenity, 2009), 34-40. When citing a source more than once, use a shortened version of the footnote. 2. James, The Ambassadors, 14. Citing sources with more than one author If there are two or three authors of the source, include their full names in the order they appear on the source. If there are more than three authors, list only the first author followed by “et al.” You should list all the authors in the bibliography. 1 John K. Smith, Tim Sampson, and Alex J. Hubbard, Example Book (New York: Scholastic, 2010), 65. John K. Smith, Example Book (New York: Scholastic, 2010), 65. Citing sources with other contributor information You may want to include other contributor information in your footnotes such as editor, translator, or compiler. If there is more than one of any given contributor, include their full names in the order they appear on the source. John Smith, Example Book, trans. Bill McCoy and Tim Thomas (New York: Random House, 2000), 15. John Smith, Example Book, ed. Tim Thomas (New York: Random House, 1995), 19. If the contributor is taking place of the author, use their full name instead of the author’s and provide their contribution. John Smith, trans., Example Book (New York: Random House, 1992), 25. Citing sources with no author It may not be possible to find the author/contributor information; some sources may not even have an author or contributor- for instance, when you cite some websites. Simply omit the unknown information and continue with the footnote as usual. Example Book (New York: Scholastic, 2010), 65. Citing a part of a work 2 When citing a specific part of a work, provide the relevant page or section identifier. This can include specific pages, sections, or volumes. If page numbers cannot be referenced, simply exclude them. Below are different templates: Multivolume work: Webster’s Dictionary, vol. 4 (Springfield: Merriam-Webster, 1995). Part of a multivolume work: John Smith, ed., “Anthology,” in Webster’s Dictionary, ed. John Smith, vol 2. of Webster’s Dictionaries(Springfield: Merriam-Webster, 1995). Chapter in a book: Garrett P. Serviss, “A Trip of Terror,” in A Columbus of Space (New York: Appleton, 1911), 17-32. Introduction, afterword, foreword, or preface: Scott R Sanders, introduction to Tounchstone Anthology of Contemporary Creative Nonfiction: Work from 1970 to Present, ed. Lex Williford and Michael Martone (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007), x-xii. Article in a periodical: William G. Jacoby, “Public Attitudes Toward Public Spending,” American Journal of Political Science 38, no. 2 (May 1994): 336-61. Citing group or corporate authors In your footnotes, cite a corporate author like you would a normal author. 3 American Medical Association, Journal of the American Medical Association: 12-43. Citing an entire source When citing an entire work, there are no specific page numbers to refer to. Therefore, simply exclude the page numbers from the footnote. John K. Smith, Example Book (New York: Scholastic, 2010). Citing indirect sources When an original source is unavailable, then cite the secondhand source – for instance, a lecture in a conference proceedings. If using an unpublished address, cite only in the paper/writing. If using a published address, use a footnote with the following format. Paula Abdul mentioned in her interview on Nightline… Zouk Mosbeh, “Localization and the Training of Linguistic Mediators for the Third Millennium,” Paper presented at The Challenges of Translation & Interpretation in the Third Millennium, Lebanon, May 17, 2002. Citing the Bible The title of books in the Bible should be abbreviated. Chapter and verses should be separated by a colon. You should include the version you are referencing. Prov. 3:5-10 AV. Citing online sources 4 Generally, follow the same principals of footnotes to cite online sources. Refer to the author if possible and include the URL. Henry James, The Ambassadors (Rockville: Serenity: 2009), http://books.google.com. Bhakti Satalkar, “Water Aerobics,” http://www.buzzle.com, (July 15, 2010). Citing online sources with no author If there is no author, use either the article or website title to begin the citation. Be sure to use quotes for article titles and include the URL. “Bad Strategy: At E3, Microsoft and Sony Put Nintendo on the Defense,” BNET, www.cbsnews.com/moneywatch, (June 14, 2010) 5 …

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