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For this assignment you will utilize the class materials for Weeks 5 and 6, including the IPCC 6th Assessment Report – Summary for Policy Makers (the latest IPCC Assessment Report available).

Part I.

1. In the IPCC AR6, how are the following terms defined (see footnote, p. SPM 4)?

a. virtually certain

b. very likely

c. likely

d. about as likely as not

e. unlikely

f. very unlikely

2. How much has global surface temperature warmed (observed in the period 2011-2020) since 1850-1900? Report your answer in both degrees Celsius and Fahrenheit.

3. a. How much has global surface temperature warmed from human drivers?

b. How have natural drivers changed global surface temperature?

c. How have other human drivers (primarily increases in aerosols in the earth’s atmosphere) changed global surface temperature?

4. What are the top three greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming and how much warming (in degrees C and F) can be attributed to them?

5. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is higher than at any time in the past how many years?

6. Human-induced warming has caused changes in climate and weather extremes. Choose 3 climate/weather extremes and characterize how they have changed due to global warming, according to the AR6 Summary for Policy Makers.

7. Carefully examine the charts, graphs and statements on pages SPM 14-18 of IPCC AR6 Summary for Policy Makers. Explain how much warming is expected (in degrees C and F) for each of the following emissions scenarios. For the two lowest emissions scenarios, at approximately what year will 0 Gigatons of carbon per year need to be achieved?

a. SSP 1 – 1.9:

b. SSP 1 – 2.6:

c. SSP 2 – 4.5:

d. SSP 3 – 7.0:

e. SSP 5 – 8.5:

8. Review the near and long-term projections for sea level rise on pages SPM 28-29 of AR6 Summary for Policy Makers.

a. Characterize the projected sea level rise for the near-term – by 2100 – of the following emissions scenarios (report your answers in meters (m) and feet):

SSP 1-1.9 (very low emissions scenario):

SSP 2 – 4.5 (intermediate emissions scenario):

SSP 5-8.5 (high emissions scenario):

b. Characterize the projected sea level rise for the long term (over the next 2000 years) at the following peak global temperature rise above 1850-1900 global average temperature (report your answers in meters (m) and feet):

1.5 C:

2.0 C:

5.0 C:

c. How much higher was sea level estimated to be relative to today’s sea level for the two past temperature reference time periods?

125,000 years ago (when temperatures were .5 C – 1.5 C higher than 1850-1900):

3 million years ago (when temperatures were 2.5 C – 4.0 C higher than 1850-1900):

Part II.

Choose one major technological or social innovation that could help us transition from our fossil-fuel based economy to renewable (non-carbon) energy sources. In 4 – 6 paragraphs (about 250 – 500 words), discuss the potential impact of your solution, and the major barriers or challenges with its implementation or widespread adoption. You may utilize the resources in Weeks 5 and 6 as your sources, or do your own independent research. Provide a bibliography of your sources and use in-text citations within your short essay.

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