40 points) Smith Nevada, the managing editor of Your Horoscope magazine, needs to develop a fore

3. (40 points) Smith Nevada, the managing editor of Your Horoscope magazine, needs to develop a forecasting system for monthly newsstand sales in order to schedule press runs. Sales in thousands of copies for the first 6 months of publication were: Year 2018 Month January February March Sales 80 65 75 70 65 72 May June Smith does not believe that there is a seasonal pattern. He considers four different forecasting methods. Naive, Three-period Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing with ?-03, and Trend Projection. Choose the best forecasting method of the four and develop a forecast for July 2018. (Use the first four months as the warm-up sample period and the r months as the forecasting sample period. The criteria of measuring forecast accuracy to be used are Bias, MSE, MAD, and MAPE.) 3. (40 points) Smith Nevada, the managing editor of Your Horoscope magazine, needs to develop a forecasting system for monthly newsstand sales in order to schedule press runs. Sales in thousands of copies for the first 6 months of publication were: Year 2018 Month January February March Sales 80 65 75 70 65 72 May June Smith does not believe that there is a seasonal pattern. He considers four different forecasting methods. Naive, Three-period Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing with ?-03, and Trend Projection. Choose the best forecasting method of the four and develop a forecast for July 2018. (Use the first four months as the warm-up sample period and the r months as the forecasting sample period. The criteria of measuring forecast accuracy to be used are Bias, MSE, MAD, and MAPE.)

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